Visualized: The Shrinking Future of Western Populations

Visualized: The Shrinking Future of Western Populations

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The world’s wealthiest economies are getting older.

In this graphic, we compare fertility rates across Western-aligned countries, showing how far they’ve fallen below the 2.1 “replacement” threshold. This pattern hints at long-run population stagnation as well as a number of resulting pressures.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from The World Factbook. We used it to rank fertility rates in the West, measured as births per woman. Each country’s global ranking is included in this table for additional context.

Nation	Fertility Rate (births per woman)	Global Ranking (out of 227)
Israel	2.92	50
Iceland	1.94	113
France	1.90	121
Kosovo	1.87	129
New Zealand	1.85	131
United States	1.84	133
Montenegro	1.8	141
Denmark	1.77	144
Belgium	1.76	145
Finland	1.74	150
Czechia	1.73	154
Australia	1.73	155
Ireland	1.72	158
Sweden	1.67	169
Luxembourg	1.63	175
Romania	1.63	176
UK	1.63	177
Estonia	1.62	178
Lithuania	1.62	179
Netherlands	1.61	180
Slovakia	1.60	184
Slovenia	1.60	185
Hungary	1.60	186
Switzerland	1.59	187
Canada	1.58	189
Germany	1.58	190
Norway	1.57	191
Latvia	1.55	192
Albania	1.55	194
San Marino	1.54	195
Monaco	1.54	196
North Macedonia	1.53	198
Austria	1.52	200
Malta	1.51	201
Bulgaria	1.51	202
Cyprus	1.49	203
Andorra	1.47	204
Serbia	1.46	205
Croatia	1.46	206
Portugal	1.45	207
Greece	1.41	211
Japan	1.40	212
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.38	214
Poland	1.32	217
Spain	1.30	218
Italy	1.26	219
Moldova	1.26	221

What is the Global West?

The West refers to a group of countries with shared history, values, and alliances. It traditionally includes Europe and North America, but also extends to countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Israel that are deeply integrated into Western-led institutions.

These countries are united by their foundation in democracy, market economies, individual rights, and geopolitical alignment through groups like NATO, the EU, and the OECD. Together, these countries form the core of the liberal international order and are often treated as the Western world in global discussions.

What are the Risks of a Shrinking Population?

For starters, old-age dependency ratios rise sharply as populations begin to shrink, placing strain on pensions and healthcare systems. To support a growing senior population, workers will likely face heavier tax burdens.

A second risk is slowing productivity growth. According to a 2023 study published in the American Economic Journal, a 10% increase in the population aged 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5%. One-third of the reduction was due to slower employment growth, while the remaining two-thirds were due to slower productivity growth.

Some countries are boosting immigration to offset the effects of their declining fertility rates, though this presents a risk of its own: societal unrest.

For example, there have been numerous anti-immigration rallies throughout Europe in 2025, including in the UK, where up to 150,000 people recently marched in London.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out European Countries With the Most Immigrants on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

• Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-the-shrinking-future-of-western-populations/