The energy world is changing fast, yet not fast enough to protect the planet from dangerous warming. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025, released at the start of COP30 in Brazil, lays out three futures for global emissions. These scenarios show how close — or far — the world is from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The findings are sobering, but they also give countries clear signals on where action must accelerate.
The IEA makes one point very clear: 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded, and for the first time, global temperatures stayed above 1.5°C across the entire year. The last decade was also the hottest in history. This puts huge pressure on countries as they update their national climate plans at COP30.
Yet the IEA also stresses something important — none of its scenarios are forecasts. They are pathways, and the direction we take still depends on policy choices made today.
A World on a Hotter Track: What the IEA’s Scenarios Show
The IEA’s three major scenarios outline different ways the global energy system could evolve. Two reflect today’s conditions. The third shows what it would take actually to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Current Policies Scenario (CPS): The Dangerous Path
This scenario assumes governments stop at policies already written into law. No new climate pledges. No new incentives. No strengthened targets.
Under this path:
- Coal use falls only slightly.
- Oil and gas demand have been rising for decades.
- Global energy-related emissions stay close to 2024 levels all the way to 2050.
The result is alarming. Global warming will hit 2°C by around 2050 and reach 2.9°C by 2100, and temperatures will still be rising. The IEA even warns there is a 5% chance of hitting 4°C, a level associated with extreme climate disruptions and irreversible tipping points.
The CPS was removed after 2020 because it seemed unrealistic in a world trying to cut emissions. But political pressure, especially from the Trump administration, pushed the IEA to bring it back. Its return shows how vulnerable global climate ambition can be when big economies shift direction.
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Better, but Still Off-Track
This scenario reflects what governments say they plan to do — but not what they have legally locked in.
Here:
- Emissions peak within a few years.
- They fall slightly to 35.2 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2035.
- Advanced economies and China reduce emissions.
- But developing economies emit more as energy demand rises.
Even with these changes, the STEPS pathway still results in 2.5°C of warming by 2100. This is far above the Paris goal of “well below 2°C” and nowhere near keeping warming under 1.5°C. The IEA notes that this year’s STEPS outcome is worse than last year’s due to slower clean energy progress and higher expected coal use.
Net Zero by 2050 Scenario (NZE): The Only Path that Stabilizes the Climate
Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, often called the NZE, shows what a 1.5°C-aligned future would require. It is the only pathway that eventually brings warming back below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
But the challenge has grown sharply. Because real-world emissions remain high, the NZE scenario now includes:
- a higher and longer overshoot of the 1.5°C limit
- warming peaks around 65°C mid-century and slowly declines
Large-Scale Carbon Removal Technologies: The Saviour
The only way to return below that threshold later this century is to combine deep emissions cuts with large-scale carbon removal technologies. These technologies remain expensive and unproven at the scale required.
So the IEA emphasizes that countries must do everything possible to limit the overshoot by cutting emissions faster now. Notably, in the NZE pathway, global emissions fall by more than half by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050.
By the end of the century, carbon removal technologies would need to eliminate nearly four gigatonnes of CO₂ each year to bring temperatures back down.
A Fossil Peak Nears as Clean Energy Surges — but the World Still Falls Short
The IEA shows the energy system shifting, with coal already at or near its peak and oil expected to peak around 2030, though its decline will be slower than once expected. Gas demand levels off around 2035, but at a higher baseline than earlier forecasts, revealing how deeply rooted fossil fuels remain in the global mix.
At the same time, clean energy is rising fast. Solar capacity could more than triple by 2035, wind is set to nearly triple, and nuclear expands by close to 40 percent. Renewables will even overtake oil as the largest energy source by the early 2040s. Yet the world is still not moving fast enough. Under stated policies, renewable capacity reaches about 13,700 gigawatts by 2035, far short of the roughly 19,600 gigawatts required under the net-zero pathway.
Global Carbon Emissions: Peaks and Plateaus
Both IEA scenarios point to sustained high emissions, though at different levels. In the CPS, global energy emissions stay near 2024 levels through 2050, as small coal reductions are offset by rising oil and gas use. In the STEPS, emissions peak soon, drop to 35.2 gigatonnes by 2035, and decline slowly to 2050.
Reductions in advanced economies and China are balanced by rising emissions in developing regions. The gap between CPS and STEPS comes mainly from higher coal emissions, slower industrial efficiency, and delayed adoption of electric and efficient vehicles.
All in all, this gap underscores the need to accelerate clean energy deployment to align with global climate goals.
Why COP30 Matters More Than Ever
With the world heating faster than expected and the 1.5°C threshold already breached annually, COP30 becomes a turning point. The IEA’s outlook directly shapes negotiations because it:
- Shows the world is far off-track.
- Highlights the widening gap between political promises and real action.
- Makes clear that overshoot is now unavoidable.
- Warns that delay will force much heavier reliance on expensive CO₂ removals later.
At COP30, countries need to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The IEA warns that current NDCs do not reflect the full potential of national policies or domestic clean energy momentum. In other words, many countries are doing more at home than they are willing to commit to on paper.
COP30 is a chance to fix this gap.
What Can Be Done to Get on Track? The IEA’s Priority Actions
The message is clear: the world is not on track, and the window to avoid the worst climate impacts is shrinking. Still, the IEA shows that meaningful progress is underway.
It highlights several actions that could quickly bring global emissions closer to the NZE path. The world needs faster renewable energy deployment, stronger energy efficiency improvements, and large reductions in methane emissions from the energy sector.
Electrification of vehicles, buildings, and industry has to accelerate, and sustainable fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen must expand significantly. These steps are well understood, often cost-effective, and achievable with current technology. What remains missing is the political will to scale them up at the speed required.
With COP30, countries certainly have an opportunity to match ambition with action and take decisive steps toward a safer climate future.
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