India and Canada are close to finalizing a $2.8 billion uranium supply deal. This agreement could reshape their energy partnership for the next decade. The 10-year deal would let Canadian producer Cameco supply fuel for India’s growing nuclear fleet. This partnership, paused in 2020, now returns at a larger scale, reflecting stronger political ties and rising nuclear energy demand.
This deal goes beyond trade. It connects India’s need for clean power with Canada’s rise as a global supplier. It also comes at a time when Cameco is gaining strategic strength and influence, making this timing ideal for both countries.
A New Phase in India–Canada Nuclear Cooperation
Recent reports from The Globe and Mail show that both nations are nearing the end of negotiations. This new supply deal would replace the earlier $350 million, five-year agreement from 2015, but it’s nearly ten times the value and twice the duration.
India seeks long-term uranium security as it expands nuclear generation and aims to achieve 100 GW of nuclear energy capacity by 2047. This target is critical for cutting carbon emissions and meeting the country’s future energy needs. Notably, as of January 30, 2025, India’s installed nuclear capacity stands at 8,180 MW.
A stable decade-long supply from Canada would help India run its reactors smoothly and support its plans to increase nuclear capacity through 2040 and beyond.
For Canada, the deal strengthens its position as a trusted supplier. This is crucial as many countries aim to move away from Russian nuclear fuel. It also deepens ties with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
G20 Summit Signals a Reset in Relations
Momentum for the uranium deal grew when Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on November 23, 2025, during the G20 Summit in Johannesburg. Their meeting marked a significant step in rebuilding relations.
Both leaders praised the Australia-Canada-India Technology and Innovation (ACITI) Partnership. This partnership aims to boost cooperation in nuclear energy, critical technologies, supply-chain resilience, and artificial intelligence. They noted progress since their earlier meeting in June and the launch of a roadmap for renewed engagement in October.
As per reports, the leaders reaffirmed their civil-nuclear ties and discussed ongoing talks about a long-term uranium supply arrangement—an obvious nod to the Cameco deal. They also agreed to restart talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with a goal to double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030.
Cameco Stock Surges with The Potential Uranium Agreement
The timing of this potential agreement aligns with Cameco’s steady rise in strength. In its November 5 third-quarter results, Cameco reported $172 million in earnings before taxes and $220 million in adjusted EBITDA in its uranium segment. Although sales volumes dipped slightly, the company maintained strong performance and a stable outlook for 2025.
More significantly, market confidence in Cameco remains strong. In November, its shares traded around $87.35 on the NYSE, rising nearly 4.8% in one day. The stock fluctuated between $82.45 and $87.67, reflecting growing investor optimism.
Analysts attribute this rise to tightening global uranium supply, new reactor commitments, and excitement around the potential India–Canada uranium agreement. Investors view Cameco as a key player in the nuclear energy revival.
Meeting 2025 Uranium Targets
Cameco updated its production expectations as well. Output from the McArthur River/Key Lake site is now estimated at 14–15 million pounds of U₃O₈ on a 100% basis, down from earlier plans. However, excellent performance at Cigar Lake, expected to produce 19 million pounds, should help balance part of the shortfall. Overall, the company expects its share of uranium output to reach up to 20 million pounds in 2025.
Cameco also narrowed its sales guidance to 32–34 million pounds and reduced market purchases to 1 million pounds, showing confidence in its operational flexibility.
Expanding Its Influence Through U.S. Partnership
The company’s outlook also strengthened with a new partnership involving the U.S. Government and Brookfield. This initiative aims to speed up the deployment of Westinghouse nuclear reactors in the U.S. The expected investment for this program is at least $80 billion.
This collaboration supports Cameco’s fuel-cycle strategy and boosts demand for its reactor technologies, uranium products, and long-term services. As the U.S. moves toward major nuclear energy expansion, Cameco stands to benefit from this growth.
Why the India–Canada Uranium Deal Matters
The new $2.8 billion uranium deal impacts energy security and geopolitics. For India, it ensures the fuel to operate and grow its nuclear fleet. This supports economic growth and lowers emissions.
- Canada holds the third-largest uranium reserves globally and ranks as the second-largest uranium exporter in the world.
Roughly 15 percent of the uranium mined in Canada fuels domestic CANDU reactors. The remaining supply is exported, generating about $1 billion annually. Major destinations include the United States, Europe, and Asia.
Thus, for Canada, it strengthens its position as a trusted, non-Russian uranium supplier and creates new chances in Asia.
For Cameco, this deal would provide steady revenue and strengthen its position as a dependable uranium producer. It aligns with rising nuclear demand driven by climate goals, reliability needs, and geopolitical shifts.
A Defining Moment for Nuclear-Energy Partnerships
The agreement isn’t final yet, but diplomatic signals, market reactions, and industry discussions suggest a shift in India–Canada relations. Once confirmed, it would mark a major milestone for nuclear cooperation and a new decade of collaboration.
If completed, the India–Canada uranium deal will be a strategic victory for both nations. It will provide India with reliable fuel for its nuclear ambitions. It will strengthen Canada’s role in global energy markets. And it will reinforce Cameco’s leadership as nuclear power plays a key role in clean-energy plans.
This potential pact is more than a commercial deal. It reflects a broader strategic alignment during a global nuclear revival and may become one of the most significant long-term energy partnerships of the decade.
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