Chart: The 2026 Growth Outlook for G20 Nations
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Key Takeaways
- India is projected to lead G20 nations with a 6.2% real GDP growth rate in 2026, nearly double the global average.
- Developing economies dominate the top half of the growth ranking, while advanced economies lag significantly.
- Japan, Italy, and Germany are forecast to have the slowest growth, each under 1%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its World Economic Outlook (October 2025), providing updated real GDP growth forecasts for 2026. The latest projections give us a snapshot of where G20 economies are headed, and how they stack up against each other.
Based on these projections, emerging markets appear poised to drive global growth, while many advanced economies are expected to grow at a pace below the global average.
G20 Economic Growth Forecast for 2026
The chart above, created by Aneesh Anand, shows IMF’s projected real GDP growth for all G20 nations in 2026.
| Rank | Economy | Annual Real Growth Rate (in %, 2026P) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  India |
6.2 |
| 2 |  Indonesia |
4.9 |
| 3 |  China |
4.2 |
| 4 |  Argentina |
4.0 |
| 5 |  Saudi Arabia |
4.0 |
| 6 |  Turkiye |
3.7 |
| 7 |  Australia |
2.1 |
| 8 |  U.S. |
2.1 |
| 9 |  Brazil |
1.9 |
| 10 |  Korea |
1.8 |
| 11 |  Canada |
1.5 |
| 12 |  Mexico |
1.5 |
| 13 |  EU |
1.4 |
| 14 |  UK |
1.3 |
| 15 |  South Africa |
1.2 |
| 16 |  Russia |
1.0 |
| 17 |  France |
0.9 |
| 18 |  Germany |
0.9 |
| 19 |  Italy |
0.8 |
| 20 |  Japan |
0.6 |
| — |  World |
3.1 |
India leads the pack at 6.2%, followed by Indonesia (4.9%) and China (4.2%). In contrast, major advanced economies such as Japan (0.6%), Italy (0.8%), and Germany (0.9%) trail the group significantly.
India Emerges as a Global Growth Engine
India’s standout performance is part of a broader macroeconomic shift. The country’s expanding middle class, demographic advantage, and growing role in global supply chains position it as a key player in the realignment of global economic trends.
This is also reflected in the long-term shift in global economic power, where countries like India and China have steadily increased their share of global GDP.
Advanced Economies Lag Behind
While global real GDP growth is projected at 3.1%, many G20 advanced economies are expected to underperform:
- The U.S. and Australia are forecast to grow at 2.1% each. Modest, but still above much of Europe.
- The EU as a whole is projected to grow at just 1.4%, with core economies like France and Germany stuck below 1%.
- Japan, facing demographic headwinds and weak domestic demand, is expected to grow just 0.6%.
These projections highlight the widening divergence in global growth, with emerging markets taking on a larger share of economic momentum in 2026.
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Explore related insights on Ranked: Productivity of the World’s Largest 30 Economies (2005–2025) to understand how economic output per worker has shifted alongside GDP growth trends.
