Mapped: U.S. Population Growth and Decline by 2040

Mapped: U.S. Population Growth and Decline by 2040

The U.S. population is projected to grow by 21.5 million people between 2025 and 2040, an increase of 6.3%. Yet more than half of that growth will be in just two states: Texas and Florida.

This visualization maps projected net population change across all 50 states and the District of Columbia using data from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. Its 2040 projections are benchmarked to the 2020 Census and incorporate the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2025 population estimates.

Texas and Florida Drive Half of U.S. Population Growth by 2040

Texas is projected to add 6,559,670 residents by 2040, while Florida adds 4,621,619. Together, the two states supply 11,181,289 people, or more than half the entire projected U.S. increase.

The table below ranks all 50 states and D.C. by projected population change and shows each place’s percentage change from its 2025 estimate:

Rank	State	Population Growth, 2025–2040
		People	Change
1	Texas	6,559,670	20.7%
2	Florida	4,621,619	19.7%
3	North Carolina	1,477,227	13.2%
4	Georgia	1,284,018	11.4%
5	Arizona	1,057,832	13.9%
6	Washington	968,101	12.1%
7	South Carolina	894,828	16.1%
8	Tennessee	791,952	10.8%
9	Utah	773,467	21.9%
10	Colorado	768,298	12.8%
11	Virginia	506,905	5.7%
12	Idaho	488,619	24.1%
13	Nevada	482,692	14.7%
14	New Jersey	409,893	4.3%
15	Massachusetts	278,669	3.9%
16	Minnesota	270,623	4.6%
17	Oklahoma	250,585	6.1%
18	Indiana	232,269	3.3%
19	Alabama	219,790	4.2%
20	Oregon	196,194	4.6%
21	Maryland	192,484	3.1%
22	Delaware	141,134	13.3%
23	Montana	124,693	10.9%
24	Nebraska	119,582	5.9%
25	South Dakota	100,460	10.7%
26	Arkansas	100,277	3.2%
27	North Dakota	99,521	12.5%
28	Kentucky	84,811	1.8%
29	Iowa	63,007	1.9%
30	Missouri	45,267	0.7%
31	District of Columbia	44,977	6.5%
32	Maine	42,213	3.0%
33	New Hampshire	41,632	2.9%
34	Wisconsin	29,048	0.5%
35	Rhode Island	15,656	1.4%
36	Kansas	8,769	0.3%
37	Wyoming	2,198	0.4%
38	Connecticut	-396	0.0%
39	Alaska	-8,841	-1.2%
40	Vermont	-12,213	-1.9%
41	Hawaii	-20,429	-1.4%
42	New Mexico	-36,278	-1.7%
43	Ohio	-122,089	-1.0%
44	Mississippi	-138,951	-4.7%
45	California	-144,900	-0.4%
46	West Virginia	-147,952	-8.4%
47	Louisiana	-153,837	-3.3%
48	Michigan	-183,820	-1.8%
49	Pennsylvania	-184,685	-1.4%
50	New York	-456,879	-2.3%
51	Illinois	-649,689	-5.1%
—	United States	21,528,019	6.3%

The South overall is projected to add 16.7 million people, representing 77.7% of total U.S. growth through 2040. The West adds another 4.7 million, while the Northeast and Midwest combined gain just 146,838 people, or 0.7% of the national increase.

This concentration extends a long-running regional shift. The Cooper Center’s broader outlook projects the South’s share of the U.S. population to rise from 38.1% in 2020 to 42.7% in 2050, while the shares of the Northeast and Midwest decline.

The Most Populous U.S. States in 2040

Based on these growth and decline numbers, which states will be the most populous in 15 years?

Rank (2040)	State	Population (2025)	Population (2040P)
1	California	39,355,309	39,210,409
2	Texas	31,709,821	38,269,491
3	Florida	23,462,518	28,084,137
4	New York	20,002,427	19,545,548
5	Pennsylvania	13,059,432	12,874,747
6	North Carolina	11,197,968	12,675,195
7	Georgia	11,302,748	12,586,766
8	Illinois	12,719,141	12,069,452
9	Ohio	11,900,510	11,778,421
10	New Jersey	9,548,215	9,958,108
11	Michigan	10,127,884	9,944,064
12	Virginia	8,880,107	9,387,012
13	Washington	8,001,020	8,969,121
14	Arizona	7,623,818	8,681,650
15	Tennessee	7,315,076	8,107,028
16	Massachusetts	7,154,084	7,432,753
17	Indiana	6,973,333	7,205,602
18	Colorado	6,012,561	6,780,859
19	South Carolina	5,570,274	6,465,102
20	Maryland	6,265,347	6,457,831
21	Missouri	6,270,541	6,315,808
22	Minnesota	5,830,405	6,101,028
23	Wisconsin	5,972,787	6,001,835
24	Alabama	5,193,088	5,412,878
25	Kentucky	4,606,864	4,691,675
26	Oregon	4,273,586	4,469,780
27	Louisiana	4,618,189	4,464,352
28	Oklahoma	4,123,288	4,373,873
29	Utah	3,538,904	4,312,371
30	Nevada	3,282,188	3,764,880
31	Connecticut	3,688,496	3,688,100
32	Iowa	3,238,387	3,301,394
33	Arkansas	3,114,791	3,215,068
34	Kansas	2,977,220	2,985,989
35	Mississippi	2,954,160	2,815,209
36	Idaho	2,029,733	2,518,352
37	Nebraska	2,018,006	2,137,588
38	New Mexico	2,125,498	2,089,220
39	West Virginia	1,766,147	1,618,195
40	Maine	1,414,874	1,457,087
41	New Hampshire	1,415,342	1,456,974
42	Hawaii	1,432,820	1,412,391
43	Montana	1,144,694	1,269,387
44	Delaware	1,059,952	1,201,086
45	Rhode Island	1,114,521	1,130,177
46	South Dakota	935,094	1,035,554
47	North Dakota	799,358	898,879
48	District of Columbia	693,645	738,622
49	Alaska	737,270	728,429
50	Vermont	644,663	632,450
51	Wyoming	588,753	590,951
—	United States	341,784,857	363,312,876

California will remain at the top with 39.2 million people, but Texas will almost catch right up as it hits 38.3 million people by the year 2040.

Fourteen States Are Projected to Shrink

Illinois (-649,689) and New York (-456,879) lead the projected losses, but the broader pattern is regional.

Seven of the 14 shrinking states sit in the older industrial North: Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio around the Great Lakes, plus New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Connecticut in the Northeast. Together, those seven account for more than 70% of all projected state losses.

A second cluster runs through the South, where West Virginia, Mississippi, and Louisiana are projected to lose more than 440,000 people combined. California is the outlier on the map’s western edge: its projected decline of roughly 145,000 is small for a state of 39 million, but it marks a reversal for a state that grew in every decade of the last century.

The two engines of decline work together. Aging populations mean less natural growth, with recent data showing that deaths now outnumber births in 17 U.S. states, leaving migration as the deciding factor.

At the same time, the domestic migration that fuels the Sun Belt’s gains pulls hardest from these same states, as residents move toward jobs, cheaper housing, and warmer climates in Texas, Florida, and the broader South.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mapped: States With the Most Children as a Share of the Population on Voronoi.

• Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-americas-population-change-by-state-2040/