When Ontario cash-crop farmers get together at Canada’s Outdoor Farm Show, crop conditions, yields and harvest logistics are always part of the conversation with the numerous analysts and marketers at the show.
This year, market prices should give producers reason for optimism.
That does not mean prices will keep rising without interruption. Markets can turn quickly. The seasonal tendency is for pressure as U.S. corn and soybean harvest begins. Whether that weakness proves temporary or marks a larger trend change remains to be seen, but farmers should be alert for signs that recent strength is waning.
From a marketing perspective, trying to predict the exact high is less useful than recognizing when the market puts you in a position of strength.
Think of it as opportunity recognition. It is not a prediction or a requirement to sell. It is the discipline of reassessing the market when prices, trends, basis levels or farm economics have materially changed.
What matters to Ontario growers is local cash bids, not just Chicago futures. Cash prices are influenced by the Canadian dollar and local supply-and-demand conditions, which can shift independently of futures markets.
Corn prices rebound
Corn has made a sharp turnaround from its early summer break. The 2026-crop Ontario price weakened through June, then reversed and climbed strongly through July and August.
Shifting U.S. production expectations helped fuel the rally. As discussed in Farmtario’s Aug. 19 review of the USDA estimates and Pro Farmer crop tour, field observations reduced the threat of a burdensome U.S. crop.
Ontario crop prospects are generally good. Farmtario’s Aug. 21 Ontario weather and markets update noted rapid crop development and generally favourable conditions. Steady August rains helped grain fill in many areas. Excess moisture has created localized disease and nitrogen-loss concerns, but significant problems remain isolated.
Ontario 2026-crop corn bids hit new highs in late August. Image: Glacier Farm Media
Soybean prices move higher
Soybeans have followed a steadier but similarly positive price trend. Ontario 2026-crop soybean bids turned higher last winter and advanced through the spring. Despite summer volatility, the broader trend is up.
Ontario’s warm, wet August favoured crop development. Some disease pressure is evident in wet areas, but it is not a provincewide issue.
South of the border, August crop estimates and field observations raised questions about whether U.S. yield potential is quite as high as once expected. Even so, expectations for a large crop remain.
Market reaction can be as important as the news itself. A market that continues to rally amid widespread talk of large crops sends a different signal than one that cannot respond to positive news. In August, soybean prices were resilient to expectations for a large U.S. crop. If harvest pressure develops this fall, it may be relatively mild.
Ontario 2026-crop soybean bids hit new highs in late August.
Image: Glacier Farm Media
Wheat prices strengthen ahead of fall harvest
Wheat is different. This year’s crop is harvested. Ontario prices felt some seasonal pressure in June but recovered quickly in July and August.
That matters for growers looking to clear storage space for corn and soybeans. Wheat has also drawn support from uncertainty surrounding Black Sea grain exports as the Russia-Ukraine war continues.
There is another angle for wheat. Ontario 2027-crop soft red winter wheat bids have also advanced from their June lows. As soybeans come off and wheat planting begins, growers may be thinking about starting sales of next year’s wheat as well.
Cash wheat bids have climbed sharply, improving pricing for farmers wanting to clear bin space for other crops.
Image: Glacier Farm Media
It’s not all good news
Stronger crop prices do not automatically translate into stronger margins. Fuel and fertilizer costs are elevated and volatile, and harvest can quickly alter the supply picture.
Attractive opportunities rarely arrive with certainty. When prices rise quickly, expectations rise just as fast. Bullish headlines can make it tempting to assume more upside is guaranteed.
The goal is to recognize that conditions have changed and reassess marketing opportunities. Stronger prices put growers in a better position to make decisions. Each farm must then decide whether selling aligns with its financial and operational goals.
The challenge of making marketing decisions amid uncertainty was explored in this Farmtario Ag in Motion discussion on managing grain sales. Good marketing does not require predicting the exact high or low. Discipline and a repeatable process matter more than reacting to every market move.
That is a useful mindset for Ontario growers heading into harvest and for the conversations taking place at Canada’s Outdoor Farm Show.
The post Ontario crop prices firm ahead of harvest appeared first on Farmtario.
