Higher Packaging Recovery Note (PRN) prices are associated with increased recycling tonnages across most packaging materials, with export markets showing a stronger response than domestic reprocessors, according to a new econometric analysis published by aluminium packaging recycling organisation Alupro.
The study examines 12 years of UK PRN market data, covering seven material types and both domestic and export recycling routes between January 2013 and December 2025. It aims to establish whether PRN prices effectively incentivise recycling, respond to changes in the availability of compliance evidence, and influence domestic and overseas reprocessing differently.
Under the PRN system, accredited reprocessors and exporters generate evidence of packaging waste recycling, which producers purchase to demonstrate compliance with their recycling obligations.
Alupro’s analysis identifies a statistically significant positive association between higher PRN prices and long-term recycling tonnages across six of the seven materials examined. Plastic emerges as the most price-sensitive material.
The study also finds that PRN prices generally respond to the availability of recycling evidence as expected, with surpluses exerting downward pressure on prices and shortfalls pushing them upwards.
Export markets show stronger response
One of the report’s more consequential findings concerns the differing responses of domestic reprocessors and exporters.
Higher PRN prices are associated with significantly stronger increases in exported recycling tonnage than in material processed domestically. Alupro suggests that export markets may act as a release valve when recycling targets are under pressure and domestic facilities lack the capacity or flexibility to respond quickly.
While this may help producers meet their compliance obligations, the findings also raise questions about the extent to which the PRN system supports investment in domestic recycling infrastructure.
The analysis identifies particularly distinctive behaviour in the aluminium market. Increases in aluminium PRN prices are significantly associated with higher recycling tonnages, whereas decreases in prices show no statistically significant corresponding effect. The researchers suggest this could indicate that gains achieved during periods of higher prices are retained over the longer term.
Aluminium is also the only material examined for which rising PRN prices are associated with a decrease in domestic recycling tonnage alongside an increase in exports.
These differences underline the importance of considering individual material markets rather than assuming that all packaging materials respond uniformly to financial incentives.
The report’s findings come as the UK packaging sector adjusts to extended producer responsibility (EPR) reforms, with further changes to the PRN system anticipated.
Alupro says the analysis is intended to provide an evidence base for future policy consultations, rather than advocate for or against the existing system.
“Amid ferocious debate regarding the value of the UK’s PRN system, we wanted to present a balanced analysis of the incentive and understand the relationship between PRN pricing and recycling tonnages,” said Stephen Devine, membership and business development manager at Alupro.
While the findings establish statistical associations rather than direct causal relationships, they could help inform future decisions about how the PRN system might support recycling performance and investment in domestic reprocessing capacity.
The full report, PRN System Review 2026, is available from Alupro.
