Corn markets bearish
This year’s corn crop in the United States was likely larger than earlier estimates, with a surprising upward revision to yields from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Oct. 9 sparking a bearish reaction in the futures.
The USDA raised its call on average yields to 181.2 bushels per acre, from 178.5 bu./ac. in September. That brought total anticipated production for the year to 16.034 billion, which would still be short of the 16.964 billion bushels grown last year but well above average trade guesses and the 15.800 billion-bushel forecast from September.
The larger crop meant ending stocks were also revised higher, topping trade estimates at 1.849 billion bushels.
Corn futures fell hard on the news, touching a two-month low of US$4.7025 per bushel in the December contract. Bargain-hunting came forward at the lows, and the contract now sees nearby support at US$4.80 per bushel.
After that, the next major support comes in at around US$4.60 per bushel. On the other side, December corn faces psychological resistance at US$5.00 per bushel, with the next upside target between US$5.10 to US$5.13 — where the 20- and 50-day moving averages converge.
Soybean yields rise in renewed USDA forecasts
The USDA also raised its call on average U.S. soybean yields to 53.1 bushels per acre, from 52.8 bu./ac. in September. Total production is now forecast at 4.562 billion bushels, which was at the high end of trade guesses and about 301 million bushels above what was grown the previous year.
Soybean ending stocks for 2026-27 were up by five million bushels from the September forecast, at 315 million bushels.
November soybeans touched a session low of US$12.6975 per bushel in immediate reaction to the USDA data before uncovering support. That level provides nearby chart support, with the next downside target not seen until around US$12.40 per bushel. Nearby resistance comes in at around US$13.00 per bushel, and then again in the US$13.20 to US$13.30 per bushel area.
