The world can no longer prevent global warming from substantially exceeding 1.5°C, according to a new United Nations assessment, which warns that current national climate commitments remain far short of the emissions reductions needed to bring temperatures back down by the end of the century.
Published on 21 October, the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026 concludes that decades of insufficient action have made exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold unavoidable. However, it says rapid emissions reductions could still limit the extent and duration of the overshoot.
The report, titled The point of return, examines a scenario in which global temperatures peak at around 1.7–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels around mid-century, before potentially returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100.
Achieving this would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
By contrast, full implementation of countries’ latest climate pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), would deliver reductions of just 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035.
Even if all current commitments are fulfilled, UNEP estimates that global temperatures are heading towards approximately 2.6°C of warming by 2100.
Emissions remain stubbornly high
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached an estimated 58.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e) in 2025, broadly unchanged from the previous year.
Although preliminary estimates suggest a marginal decline of 0.1 GtCO₂e, UNEP cautions that uncertainty in the data makes it too early to conclude that global emissions have peaked.
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion continued to increase, alongside emissions of nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. These increases were offset by lower emissions from land-use change and forestry, partly reflecting reduced wildfire activity compared with 2024.
The report also highlights a persistent gap between governments’ stated ambitions and the policies needed to deliver them.
As of September 2026, 124 parties to the Paris Agreement had submitted new climate commitments, representing approximately 76% of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, the additional reductions promised remain insufficient.
Under existing policies, global emissions in 2030 are projected to exceed the levels implied by unconditional national commitments by around 2 GtCO₂e, rising to approximately 4 GtCO₂e when conditional commitments are included.
Carbon removal presents further challenge
UNEP’s assessment also raises difficult questions about the role of carbon dioxide removal in reversing temperature increases.
Its lowest-overshoot scenario would require the removal and permanent storage of approximately 320 billion tonnes of CO₂ over the course of this century.
The report acknowledges considerable uncertainty about whether removal methods and technologies can be expanded to the necessary scale, given technological, economic and social constraints.
It warns that delaying emissions reductions would make the challenge progressively harder. Every five years of continued CO₂ emissions at present levels would add approximately 200 billion tonnes to the atmosphere, increasing peak warming by around 0.1°C.
Climate campaign group 350.org welcomed the report’s emphasis on urgent action but cautioned against relying on large-scale carbon removal technologies as a justification for continued fossil fuel development.
Fenton Lutunatabua, the organisation’s Pacific and Caribbean lead, said: “The fastest and fairest way back is not to bet on unproven technologies, but to cut emissions now, end the expansion of fossil fuels, and protect the forests, oceans and ecosystems that already keep carbon out of the atmosphere.”
Evidence that policies can work
Despite its warnings, the UNEP report identifies grounds for optimism in the rapid expansion of renewable energy and the effectiveness of established climate policies.
Deployment of solar and wind power since the Paris Agreement has repeatedly exceeded earlier forecasts, while fossil fuel consumption has grown more slowly than anticipated.
The report also examines evidence that government interventions, including regulations and economic incentives, have delivered measurable emissions reductions across different countries and sectors.
Nevertheless, progress towards the objectives agreed at the first global stocktake remains uneven. UNEP says further policy support could help deliver the international goal of tripling renewable electricity capacity by 2030.
In her foreword, UNEP executive director Inger Andersen argues that the possibility of returning to 1.5°C depends on immediate and sustained action.
The findings add urgency to discussions ahead of the COP31 UN climate conference in November, where governments will face renewed pressure to translate their climate commitments into policies capable of delivering substantial reductions in emissions.
This article draws upon the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026
