Charted: The Rise of Conflicts in Developing Regions
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Key Takeaways
- Over the past three years, Europe & Central Asia and the Middle East & North Africa have been the largest contributors to elevated global conflict rates.
- Major spikes in conflicts are kickstarted by geopolitical flashpoints, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023.
Rising geopolitical tensions and regional instability have caused conflict levels to surge in many parts of the world, especially in developing regions.
This visualization highlights the number of conflict events per one million people across various global regions from 2018 to 2025, using data from The World Bank.
Surging Conflicts in Europe and the Middle East
Europe and Central Asia witnessed a dramatic rise in conflict events following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
As seen in the table below, conflicts in the region have more than tripled from 4.6 conflicts per one million people in March of 2018 to 17.5 as of May 2025.
| Date | East Asia and Pacific (conflict events per 1M people) | Europe and Central Asia (conflict events per 1M people) | Latin America and the Caribbean (conflict events per 1M people) | Middle East and North Africa (conflict events per 1M people) | South Asia (conflict events per 1M people) | Sub-Saharan Africa (conflict events per 1M people) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2018 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| April 2018 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| July 2018 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| October 2018 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| January 2019 | 0.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| April 2019 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| July 2019 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| October 2019 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| January 2020 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| April 2020 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| July 2020 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| October 2020 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| January 2021 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| April 2021 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| July 2021 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| October 2021 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| January 2022 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| April 2022 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| July 2022 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| October 2022 | 0.5 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| January 2023 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| April 2023 | 0.5 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| July 2023 | 0.5 | 12.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| October 2023 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| January 2024 | 0.7 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| April 2024 | 0.6 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 8.5 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| July 2024 | 0.6 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| October 2024 | 0.5 | 15.7 | 3.7 | 11.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| January 2025 | 0.5 | 14.7 | 3.6 | 8.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| April 2025 | 0.5 | 16.7 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| May 2025 | 0.5 | 17.5 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February was a key ignition point, and by mid-2022, conflict intensity in this area surpassed most other regions.
The Middle East and North Africa consistently show high levels of conflict per capita, however, a notable surge occurred after the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.
This region has historically been prone to instability, but the recent spike underscores how fast tensions can escalate into widespread violence.
Lower Conflict Levels in East Asia and South Asia
Despite ongoing political complexities, regions like East Asia and the Pacific, along with South Asia, have maintained comparatively low conflict rates from 2018 to 2025.
While these areas face challenges and geopolitical tension especially around China and Taiwan, they have avoided the intense flashpoints that ignite higher levels of conflict.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
To learn more about conflicts around the world, check out this graphic on Voronoi which maps out the world’s lesser-known armed conflicts.
