Charted: Southeast Asian Countries Pick Between U.S. & China
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Key Takeaways
- A strong majority of thought leaders in Indonesia & Malaysia would prefer to align with China over the U.S.
- On the flipside, Vietnam and the Philippines show strong support for the U.S.
We live in a bipolar world with two economic superpowers: U.S. and China.
Their combined economic power is comparable to every other country’s economy added together.
But as it happened during the Cold War, countries often align themselves between two giants, seeking ties and leveraging potential to maintain favor with one of the two giants.
We visualize this careful balancing act, using Southeast Asia as an example.
This graphic charts the responses from a survey conducted by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, which asked thought leaders across Southeast Asian countries:
“If ASEAN were forced to align itself with one of the strategic rivals (U.S. or China), which should it choose?”
Important to note, this survey was conducted from January to February 2025, before the imposition of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.”
Southeast Asia is Split Between Allying With the U.S. or China
A strong majority of thought leaders in Indonesia (72%) & Malaysia (71%) would prefer to align with China over the U.S.
| Southeast Asian Country |  Align With China (%) |
 Align With U.S. (%) |
|---|---|---|
 Indonesia |
72 | 28 |
 Malaysia |
71 | 29 |
 Thailand |
56 | 44 |
 Brunei |
55 | 45 |
 Laos |
51 | 49 |
 Singapore |
47 | 53 |
 Cambodia |
43 | 57 |
 Myanmar |
42 | 58 |
 Vietnam |
27 | 74 |
 Philippines |
14 | 86 |
On the flipside, Vietnam and the Philippines show strong support for America.
What drives this strong difference in opinion within the regional bloc? The answer, of course, is in individual geopolitical ties.
Why Indonesia & Malaysia Are Pro-China
Indonesia and Malaysia show strong preference for China, likely due to deep economic ties.
Both countries are significant participants in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and have substantial trade relationships with China.
Why Vietnam & Philippines Prefer the U.S
Meanwhile, Vietnam (74%) and the Philippines (86%) favor the U.S., reflecting apprehensions over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
These nations have experienced direct territorial disputes with China, prompting them to seek closer security ties with America.
The Philippines also hosts the second-most U.S. overseas military bases (after Japan). While they are all controlled by the Filipino government, and the number of U.S. troops present are limited, it’s a clear sign of political trust.
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Want more insight into Southeast Asia Check out, Mapped: GDP Per Capita Across Southeast Asia for a quick breakdown.
