A recently published report from CarbonBrief explained that China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have shown signs of stabilization for the past 18 months, from March 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. This marks a major shift for the world’s largest emitter, as strong renewable energy growth and electric vehicle (EV) adoption begin to offset emissions from heavy industry.
China’s Renewable Boom Drives a Historic Emissions Slowdown
The global renewable boom adds further momentum. International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2025 report shows that the world added over 510 GW of renewable capacity in 2024 — the fastest pace in history. Another 520 GW is expected in 2025, with solar making up nearly 75% of new installations.
China alone contributes nearly 60% of the world’s renewable capacity — around 1,400 GW in total. Renewables now supply over 35% of China’s electricity, up from 27% in 2020.
Notably, China’s emissions have remained flat or slightly fallen for six consecutive quarters — a remarkable change after decades of growth. The key driver behind this trend is the country’s unprecedented expansion of renewable energy capacity.
- According to the IEA, in 2025 China added about 240 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity in the first nine months alone, setting a new global record.
Solar power generation rose 46% year-on-year, while wind increased by 11%. These clean energy gains allowed China to meet rising electricity demand — which grew by 6.1% in Q3 2025 — without increasing fossil fuel use.
Furthermore, power-sector CO2 emissions held steady in the third quarter, supported by renewable growth and small boosts from nuclear and hydropower. As renewables continue to expand, they are covering nearly all of the new electricity demand in China.
Electric Vehicles Cut Transport Emissions
The rapid growth of electric vehicles has been another key factor in flattening China’s emissions curve. The CarbonBrief report highlighted that in the third quarter of 2025, transport fuel emissions dropped by 5% year-on-year, as more drivers switched from gasoline and diesel cars to EVs.
This trend also highlights China’s policy success in electrifying its vehicle fleet. The country leads the world in EV production and adoption, supported by strong government incentives and expanding charging networks.
However, emissions from other oil-consuming sectors rose by 10%, driven mainly by a surge in chemical and plastics production. This increase in industrial demand offset the transport sector’s emission gains and kept total oil-related emissions slightly higher.
Industrial Emissions Paint a Mixed Picture
While China’s renewable and EV progress is impressive, heavy industries continue to weigh on its emission profile. In the third quarter of 2025:
- Cement and building materials emissions fell 7%, reflecting a prolonged real estate slowdown.
- Steel sector emissions declined 1%, even as output dropped 3%.
Interestingly, lower demand in steelmaking was absorbed mostly by electric-arc furnace (EAF) producers, who are less carbon-intensive. Yet, China’s transition toward cleaner steelmaking remains slow due to entrenched coal-based production and limited policy enforcement.
Meanwhile, chemical industry emissions surged, with both coal and oil consumption rising sharply in 2025. This sector has become a major emissions hotspot, offsetting gains in construction and power generation.
Gas demand also grew modestly — 3% overall — with power sector consumption up 9%. While natural gas emits less CO2 than coal, its rising use still adds to total emissions.
2025 Emissions: A Fine Balance
- As of late 2025, China’s total CO2 emissions stood around 15.1–15.2 gigatonnes, making up roughly 30–35% of global emissions.
That’s about the same level as last year, showing a fine balance between sectors reducing emissions and others increasing them.
September 2025 provided a positive signal: emissions fell about 3% year-on-year, raising the likelihood that the full-year total will show a slight decline. Since electricity demand — and thus emissions — usually peak during hot summer months due to air conditioning, the fourth quarter will determine whether 2025 records an actual drop.
CarbonBrief also analysed that even a 1% decrease or increase would hold major symbolic value. China’s policymakers have repeatedly said that emissions can still grow before 2030, leaving the exact “peak year” undefined. A small drop in 2025 could signal that the country’s emissions have already plateaued ahead of schedule.
Despite its renewable energy boom, China is set to miss its 2025 carbon intensity target, which aimed to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 18% compared with 2020 levels. Current data suggests that only about a 12% reduction has been achieved.
China’s Long-Term Climate Strategy: The Path to 2030
To meet its 2030 goal — a 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels — China will now need a much steeper 22–24% cut over the next five years. This will require stronger emission control measures, industrial efficiency improvements, and faster deployment of low-carbon technologies.
The shortfall also raises the stakes for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which will likely set a more ambitious emissions reduction framework.
President Xi Jinping’s announcement in September 2025 introduced a new 2035 greenhouse gas target — to cut total emissions by 7–10% below peak levels. However, since the peak year remains undefined, the level of that peak will directly determine how steep future reductions must be.
If China’s emissions peak closer to 2030, achieving the 2035 target would require more drastic cuts. But if the peak already occurred around 2024–2025, the path toward carbon neutrality becomes smoother.
In conclusion, China’s next few years will define its climate legacy. The nation’s renewable leadership has already reshaped global clean energy markets. The next challenge lies in translating that power into sustained, absolute emission reductions — a crucial step toward a genuine net-zero future.
- FURTHER READING: Renewables 2025: How China, the US, Europe, and India Are Leading the World’s Clean Energy Growth
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