The study models light-duty EV and PHEV batteries across Europe through 2045, linking vehicle adoption, operating lifetimes, used-vehicle trade, evolving chemistries, second-life storage, and recycling efficiencies to estimate the recoverable amounts of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. It projects a sharp rise in recoverable material from the late 2020s, but recycled-content targets remain difficult to meet, especially for cobalt, and high reuse reduces the cumulative material available for recycling by about 20%–25% over the study period.
