Ontario and U.S. corn and soybean crops are developing under favourable conditions. There is no risk premium in the futures market as traders factor in trend yields for the row crops.
U.S. harvest pressure is weighing on the wheat complex but production concerns remain in Europe and Russia. Volatility in the energy complex continues to influence day-to-day market direction for grains and oilseeds.
Quick look:
Soybeans: Ontario soybean production is expected to rise in 2026 over 2025.
Corn: Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest yields higher than expected.
Wheat: Harvest selling makes markets hard to predict at that time.
Soybeans
The Ontario domestic soybean crush and exports are now lagging year-ago levels. Ontario soybean prices are premium to world values. We’re projecting Ontario soybean stocks to drop to historical lows which is causing the market to ration demand.
Domestic crushers take their downtime for upgrades and maintenance during the summer. The domestic soybean crush during June through August is uncertain which is weighing on domestic values.
Our Ontario soybean production forecast remains at 4.1 million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 3.6 million tonnes.
During the first week of June, Brazilian soybeans were quoted at US$447/tonne, f.o.b. Paranagua, while U.S. soybeans were valued at US$472/tonne, f.o.b. the Gulf. Ontario soybeans were offered in the range of US$475-US$485/tonne, f.o.b. St. Lawrence port.
Traders are forecasting trend yields for the U.S. soybean crop. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release their June acreage survey on June 30. Traders expect the planted area to be higher than the March survey. Higher nitrogen prices have caused farmers to increase soybean acres and decrease corn acres. Production forecasts for the 2026 U.S. soybean crop range from 121-123 million tonnes, up from the USDA’s earlier forecast of 120.7 million tonnes and up from the 2025 output of 116 million tonnes.
The board crush margins in the U.S. and Canada have hovered near or at record highs over the past month. Soybean oil continues to make fresh contract highs. Crude oil futures continue to carry a risk premium due to tensions in the Middle East. This risk premium will be maintained until normal trade flow resumes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Usually, Ontario prices are high enough at this time of year to attract imports from the U.S. We were earlier forecasting a year-over-year increase in Ontario soybean imports; however, U.S. exports to Canada are lagging year-ago levels. This is largely due to the favourable crush margins south of the border.
We’ve advised farmers to be 100 per cent sold on their 2025 production and 10 to 15 per cent sold on their expected 2026 output.
Corn
Ontario corn prices are expected to soften during the summer barring adverse weather. Cattle on feed inventories will decline over the next couple of months and make a seasonal low in August. Export demand remains sluggish.
Canadian crop year-to-date corn exports for the week ending May 24 were 578,300 tonnes, down from the year-ago export pace of 2.4 million tonnes. We’re now projecting the Ontario corn carryout for the 2025-26 campaign to finish near 1.6 million tonnes, up from the 2024-25 ending stocks of one million tonnes.
The Ontario corn market rationed demand late in the first eight months of the crop year by trading at a premium to world values. We’re now expecting the Ontario corn market to move in line with world values as the market functions to encourage offshore movement.
During the first week of June, Brazilian corn was quoted at US$217/tonne, f.o.b. Paranagua. U.S. corn was offered at US$$228/tonne, f.o.b. the Pacific Northwest Terminal, and US$219/tonne, f.o.b. the Gulf. Ontario corn was quoted at US$220/tonne, f.o.b. St. Lawrence port. French corn was offered at US$255/tonne, f.o.b. La Pallice. Ontario corn is competitive into northern European markets.
Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is in the early stages and yields are coming in better than expected. Traders are expecting Brazil’s total corn production to finish near 136-138 million tonnes, up from last year’s crop of 136 million tonnes. In Argentina, the corn harvest is nearing 50 per cent complete. The USDA had the Argentina crop at 59 million tonnes, up 10 million tonnes from last year.
U.S. corn production is uncertain for three main reasons. First, the USDA had corn acreage at 95.3 million on the March intentions report. Traders are expecting acreage to come in at 93-94 million on the June survey, down from the 2025 seeded area of 98.8 million acres. Secondly, in a normal year, U.S. farmers will top-dress nitrogen to the tune of 100-150 pounds per acre. Given the higher prices and lower supplies, we believe farmers will apply nitrogen at a lower rate resulting below trend yields. Finally, weather remains a wild card with the U.S. drought monitor showing some problem areas in the Midwest and the southern states.
In Ontario, some farmers have switched to varieties with a shorter growing period, which typically results in lower yields. Our Ontario corn crop estimate now stands at 9.8 million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 9.5 million tonnes.
This week, we’re advising farmers to sell the final 10 per cent increment of their 2025 production bringing total sales to 100 per cent. We’re not making any recommendations for new-crop sales.
Ontario wheat growers generally sell about 85 per cent of their production from Aug. 1 through Dec. 31. Photo: Greg Berg
Wheat
World wheat prices are coming under selling pressure as the U.S. hard red winter and soft red winter wheat harvests move into high gear. U.S. farmers sell about 50 per cent of the winter wheat in the summer months. During the harvest period, production estimates are meaningless for market direction due to the large volume of farmer selling.
The European winter wheat harvest occurs in July. The crop has developed under favourable conditions but there has been some yield drag in southern Germany, Austria, Czechia, Hungary and western Romania. European farmers also sell about 50 per cent of their crop into the commercial system during the summer.
In Russia, the winter wheat crop received above normal precipitation in April, but May was on the drier side. The forecast for June and July calls for below normal precipitation. The main Russian winter wheat harvest occurs in the latter half of July and August. This is followed by the spring wheat harvest in September. Approximately 30-40 per cent per cent of the Russian wheat moves into commercial hands during the first few months of their crop year.
The Canadian spring wheat crop has been planted in a timely fashion. Conditions are favourable across the Prairies. The only drier pocket is southern Manitoba and this dryness also extends into North Dakota.
The Ontario winter wheat harvest occurs in late July and August. Ontario farmers sell 85 per cent of their wheat production from Aug. 1 through Dec. 31 despite our efforts to encourage storage.
In Australia, wheat seeding is down about 12 per cent from last year due to higher fertilizer prices. In Argentina, seeded acreage for wheat is down three to five per cent from year-ago levels.
There is a strong seasonal tendency for the wheat market to rally from mid-September through late October after the Northern Hemisphere harvest. The second major rally in the crop year occurs in spring after the Southern Hemisphere harvest.
We’ve advised farmers to be 100 per cent sold on their 2025 wheat production. We’re planning on making our first sale for the 2026 crop in mid-October. We sell half of the wheat in the fall rally and half of the wheat during the spring rally. It’s that simple.
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