The solar industry remains mired in supply-demand imbalance, excess capacity, and a low-price competitive spiral. Market-driven capacity rationalization has so far proved ineffective.
China released its national standard, Minimum Allowable Values of Energy Efficiency and Energy Efficiency Grades for Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Modules and Inverters, on June 27, with implementation scheduled for Jan. 1, 2027. It aims to reshape the industry’s competitive landscape and redirect R&D investment toward technological innovation.
The standard will serve as a key reference for market access and procurement tenders. Grade 1 energy-efficiency products are expected to command pricing premiums, incentivizing manufacturers to focus on efficiency-enhancing innovation instead of greater production capacity.
As the mainstream technology with the largest market share, tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) faces significant technology upgrade pressure due to its substantial existing production capacity. First-generation TOPCon (TOPCon 1.0) production lines with module efficiencies of around 23.3% will no longer meet the Grade 2 energy efficiency standard. Some products only qualify for Grade 3, or even fall below that level. As a result, this generation of technology is expected to see its market share gradually squeezed until it is ultimately phased out.
Although some manufacturers continue to operate at a loss, survival pressures have prompted others to upgrade parts of their old TOPCon capacity to a newer generation of the same technology. Such retrofits require comparatively limited capital expenditure and primarily involve cell-side process improvements, including edge passivation technology and poly finger technology, with the optional adoption of front-side local junction technology. Products upgraded to the TOPCon 2.0 platform can meet the Grade 2 energy efficiency standard. These upgrades improve competitiveness to a certain extent in the short term, but a second round of competitive pressure is expected to emerge as an increasing number of TOPCon 2.0 products enter the market.
Third time lucky
To further strengthen their competitiveness, many leading manufacturers have opted for a more comprehensive technology upgrade by further advancing to the TOPCon 3.0 platform, despite the substantially higher capital investment required. This upgrade is more comprehensive and incorporates both cell and module-level upgrades. By integrating technologies such as high-density cell segmentation, hidden busbar design, and reduced creepage distance, TOPCon 3.0 products can deliver module power gains of more than 15 W while meeting the Grade 1 energy efficiency standard. And this means it is expected to become the primary competitor technology platform with back contact (BC) technology.
However, upgrading to TOPCon 3.0 requires integration of multiple advanced processes, increasing the difficulty of yield control. At the same time, efficiency gains will continue to face diminishing marginal returns, while the front-side metallization grid inherently imposes optical shading losses. As a result, some manufacturers are considering directly converting existing TOPCon production lines to produce BC, although BC technology involves even greater process complexity and higher retrofit costs.
According to InfoLink statistics, as of the end of July 2026, TOPCon 3.0 capacity had reached as high as 90 GW, based on projects that had completed equipment tendering, with production expected to ramp up progressively in the second half of 2026. BC capacity is conservatively projected to reach 95 GW by the end of 2026, making these technologies strong contenders for high-efficiency module orders. By contrast, heterojunction (HJT) capacity expansion has remained relatively stagnant due to constraints on both cost and efficiency.
Impending tandems
According to annual statistics on record cell efficiencies, crystalline silicon (c-Si) has gradually approached its practical efficiency limit of approximately 29.4% through successive rounds of technological advancement. Perovskite/c-Si tandem cells have a theoretical efficiency ceiling of approximately 45%, which is substantially higher than that of c-Si. In recent years, laboratory-certified efficiencies have risen rapidly, opening a clear efficiency gap with c-Si and establishing perovskite/c-Si tandem technology as a key direction for the next-generation PV technology.
Perovskite tandem technologies have diversified into multiple routes, primarily including two-terminal (2T), three-terminal (3T), and four-terminal (4T) configurations, reflecting the trade-offs companies make based on expertise, resources and commercial goals. According to InfoLink’s compilation, leading c-Si manufacturers are primarily focusing on the 2T/3T routes. Companies such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and Tongwei, which possess established c-Si manufacturing capabilities, can continue to use much of their existing c-Si cell manufacturing capacity through the 2T architecture. Crystalline silicon manufacturers with relatively large BC capacity, such as Longi and Aiko, are also developing 3T Âtechnology. As R&D resources remain primarily allocated to currently mainstream c-Si products, even the most advanced tandem products remain at the megawatt-scale pilot stage.
The 4T architecture electrically decouples the perovskite top cell from the c-Si bottom cell, sidestepping current-matching challenges. Mature c-Si cells can be sourced externally for use as bottom cells, reducing the need for c-Si process modifications and making the architecture better suited to perovskite startups. It also makes it easier to scale up to large-area production in the near term. Companies such as GCL Optoelectronics and Microquanta are comparatively advanced in large-area scaling and mass production.
About the author
Hardy He, an analyst in InfoLink’s solar department, has more than a decade of expertise in solar module technology, gained through previous experience at a leading manufacturer. Since joining InfoLink Consulting, he has focused on tracking technological developments across the entire solar value chain, integrating insights from market dynamics and policy shifts to provide professional and actionable recommendations for industry stakeholders. InfoLink’s New Technology Market Report and Perovskite PV Technology and Market Insights reports are available at www.infolink-group.com
The post Silicon evolution appeared first on pv magazine Global.
