The World Economy in 2040, in One Chart

How the World Economy Could Look in 2040

The global economy is projected to grow from approximately $124 trillion in 2026 to $227 trillion by 2040, an increase of 83% in nominal terms.

That expansion will reshape the economic rankings, with China projected to narrow America’s lead and Asia accounting for a growing share of global output.

This graphic shows projected GDP across 190 economies in 2040, using the World Economic League Table 2026 produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). Figures measure annual output in current U.S. dollars and are not adjusted for inflation.

China to Close In on U.S. GDP by 2040

In Cebr’s estimates for 2026, the U.S. economy accounts for about 26% of global GDP at $31.6 trillion, while China accounts for 17% at $20.9 trillion.

By 2040, the gap between the world’s two largest economies is projected to narrow to approximately $5 trillion, compared with $10.7 trillion in 2026. The U.S. would remain in first place at $52.9 trillion, followed by China at $47.9 trillion.

China’s share of global GDP is projected to rise to 21%, while America’s falls to 23%. According to IMF data, China already ranks as the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity in 2026, which accounts for differences in local prices.

The table below lists each economy’s projected nominal GDP in 2040, in billions of U.S. dollars, and its projected share of the global economy:

Rank	Country / Economy	2040 GDP Proj. ($B)	Share of Global GDP (%)
1	United States	52,852	23.3
2	China	47,877	21.1
3	India	14,092	6.2
4	Germany	7,783	3.4
5	United Kingdom	6,784	3.0
6	Japan	5,922	2.6
7	France	5,203	2.3
8	Indonesia	4,182	1.8
9	Brazil	3,943	1.7
10	Canada	3,818	1.7
11	Italy	3,771	1.7
12	Spain	3,373	1.5
13	South Korea	3,297	1.5
14	Australia	3,289	1.4
15	Mexico	3,268	1.4
16	Russia	3,247	1.4
17	Saudi Arabia	2,890	1.3
18	Netherlands	2,142	0.9
19	Türkiye	2,053	0.9
20	Argentina	2,009	0.9
21	Poland	1,828	0.8
22	Switzerland	1,639	0.7
23	Taiwan	1,521	0.7
24	Philippines	1,500	0.7
25	Bangladesh	1,448	0.6
26	United Arab Emirates	1,412	0.6
27	Vietnam	1,407	0.6
28	Ireland	1,234	0.5
29	Belgium	1,106	0.5
30	Israel	1,063	0.5
31	Malaysia	1,060	0.5
32	Singapore	1,058	0.5
33	Thailand	1,037	0.5
34	Sweden	1,019	0.4
35	Austria	894	0.4
36	Egypt	869	0.4
37	Colombia	827	0.4
38	Pakistan	812	0.4
39	Norway	806	0.4
40	Romania	764	0.3
41	Hong Kong	758	0.3
42	Denmark	751	0.3
43	Iraq	699	0.3
44	South Africa	693	0.3
45	Nigeria	688	0.3
46	Kazakhstan	650	0.3
47	Czechia	630	0.3
48	Chile	597	0.3
49	Iran	594	0.3
50	Portugal	588	0.3
51	Peru	572	0.3
52	Algeria	526	0.2
53	Finland	516	0.2
54	Qatar	500	0.2
55	Greece	484	0.2
56	New Zealand	476	0.2
57	Ethiopia	461	0.2
58	Ukraine	435	0.2
59	Hungary	413	0.2
60	Morocco	389	0.2
61	Dominican Republic	347	0.2
62	Kenya	343	0.2
63	Uzbekistan	342	0.2
64	Kuwait	322	0.1
65	Côte d’Ivoire	318	0.1
66	Slovakia	289	0.1
67	Tanzania	275	0.1
68	Guatemala	271	0.1
69	Oman	260	0.1
70	Ecuador	246	0.1
71	Costa Rica	226	<0.1
72	Bulgaria	221	<0.1
73	Panama	218	<0.1
74	Serbia	213	<0.1
75	Croatia	209	<0.1
76	Uganda	202	<0.1
77	Democratic Republic of the Congo	202	<0.1
78	Sri Lanka	201	<0.1
79	Ghana	201	<0.1
80	Puerto Rico	198	<0.1
81	Angola	197	<0.1
82	Lithuania	193	<0.1
83	Luxembourg	179	<0.1
84	Slovenia	153	<0.1
85	Azerbaijan	152	<0.1
86	Uruguay	152	<0.1
87	Cameroon	141	<0.1
88	Cambodia	131	<0.1
89	Turkmenistan	127	<0.1
90	Nepal	119	<0.1
91	Jordan	115	<0.1
92	Belarus	113	<0.1
93	Bahrain	106	<0.1
94	Macao	105	<0.1
95	Paraguay	104	<0.1
96	Latvia	103	<0.1
97	Georgia	102	<0.1
98	Libya	97	<0.1
99	Myanmar (2039 GDP)	108	<0.1
100	Estonia	92	<0.1
101	Senegal	89	<0.1
102	Honduras	87	<0.1
103	Sudan	85	<0.1
104	Tunisia	85	<0.1
105	Cyprus	83	<0.1
106	Guinea	80	<0.1
107	Zimbabwe	74	<0.1
108	El Salvador	74	<0.1
109	Bolivia	70	<0.1
110	Benin	70	<0.1
111	Armenia	69	<0.1
112	Zambia	68	<0.1
113	Papua New Guinea	68	<0.1
114	Mali	67	<0.1
115	Guyana	67	<0.1
116	Mongolia	66	<0.1
117	Malta	66	<0.1
118	Niger	66	<0.1
119	Iceland	63	<0.1
120	Albania	62	<0.1
121	Bosnia and Herzegovina	62	<0.1
122	Mozambique	60	<0.1
123	Burkina Faso	60	<0.1
124	Rwanda	55	<0.1
125	Kyrgyzstan	54	<0.1
126	Botswana	50	<0.1
127	Chad	49	<0.1
128	Trinidad and Tobago	48	<0.1
129	Madagascar	47	<0.1
130	Gabon	44	<0.1
131	Nicaragua	42	<0.1
132	Tajikistan	39	<0.1
133	Moldova	39	<0.1
134	Somalia	37	<0.1
135	Jamaica	36	<0.1
136	North Macedonia	36	<0.1
137	Brunei Darussalam	34	<0.1
138	Mauritius	34	<0.1
139	Republic of Congo	33	<0.1
140	Haiti	32	<0.1
141	Togo	31	<0.1
142	Namibia	29	<0.1
143	Kosovo	28	<0.1
144	Laos	28	<0.1
145	Bahamas	27	<0.1
146	Mauritania	26	<0.1
147	Yemen	25	<0.1
148	Equatorial Guinea	22	<0.1
149	Malawi	21	<0.1
150	Sierra Leone	18	<0.1
151	Montenegro	18	<0.1
152	Maldives	17	<0.1
153	Suriname	15.7	<0.1
154	Liberia	14.1	<0.1
155	Djibouti	13.6	<0.1
156	Barbados	13	<0.1
157	Fiji	12.9	<0.1
158	Burundi	10.7	<0.1
159	Eswatini	10.6	<0.1
160	Bhutan	10.6	<0.1
161	South Sudan	7.8	<0.1
162	Cabo Verde	7.7	<0.1
163	Aruba	7.2	<0.1
164	Andorra	7.1	<0.1
165	Central African Republic	6.9	<0.1
166	Gambia	6.6	<0.1
167	Belize	5.7	<0.1
168	Guinea-Bissau	5.7	<0.1
169	Seychelles	5.1	<0.1
170	Timor-Leste	4.9	<0.1
171	St. Lucia	4.5	<0.1
172	Antigua and Barbuda	4.1	<0.1
173	Lesotho	3.8	<0.1
174	Solomon Islands	3.7	<0.1
175	Comoros	3.5	<0.1
176	San Marino	3.4	<0.1
177	Grenada	3	<0.1
178	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	2.4	<0.1
179	Samoa	2.3	<0.1
180	Vanuatu	2.2	<0.1
181	St. Kitts and Nevis	2.2	<0.1
182	São Tomé and Príncipe	1.7	<0.1
183	Dominica	1.4	<0.1
184	Tonga	0.9	<0.1
185	Micronesia	0.8	<0.1
186	Palau	0.7	<0.1
187	Kiribati	0.6	<0.1
188	Marshall Islands	0.6	<0.1
189	Nauru	0.3	<0.1
190	Tuvalu	0.1	<0.1
—	World Total	227,060	100.0%

China’s gains are part of a broader economic shift toward Asia, whose share of global GDP is projected to rise from about 32% in 2026 to 39% by 2040.

Europe’s share is projected to fall from 26% to 21% over the same period, while North America’s declines from 30% to 27%.

While the U.S. is projected to remain the largest individual economy, growth in China, India, and Indonesia would give Asia a larger role in shaping global demand and investment.

India and Indonesia Climb the Global Economic Rankings

India is projected to rise from fourth in 2026 to third in 2040. Its economy would more than triple from $4.5 trillion to $14.1 trillion over that period, exceeding the projected combined output of Germany ($7.8 trillion) and Japan ($5.9 trillion).

Cebr points to manufacturers diversifying supply chains away from China as an opportunity for India, citing Apple’s expansion of production there as an example.

Germany and Japan also lose ground in the rankings, slipping from third to fourth and fifth to sixth, respectively, by 2040. Both economies are projected to grow, but India overtakes Germany while the U.K. overtakes Japan.

Indonesia makes an even larger jump, moving from 17th to eighth. Its projected $4.2 trillion economy in 2040 would overtake Italy’s $3.8 trillion, pushing Italy out of the top 10.

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• Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/world-economy-2040/