In an interview from the recent 2026 Cattle Industry Convention and Trade Show in Nashville, Dan Halstrom, President and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), provided an optimistic outlook on U.S. beef exports despite recent hurdles.
Halstrom reports that exports declined by 18-19% in volume last year, largely due to ongoing issues with China. Excluding China, the drop was minimal at 2-3%, underscoring robust performance in other regions. Halstrom highlighted record-breaking demand worldwide, emphasizing a shift toward premium U.S. beef. For instance, Central American markets like Guatemala and Panama have evolved from opportunistic buyers of lower-grade cuts to consistent purchasers of choice and higher-quality products, even amid record-high prices exceeding $370 per choice cutout.
Looking ahead, Halstrom sees significant growth through new trade frameworks such as Indonesia. “Our estimate is if you got rid of all the non-tariff trade barriers, you’d be looking at $200 million a year just for Indonesia. It’s a huge market with a lot of spending power,” said Halstrom. In addition, the UK’s 13,000-ton duty-free quota now being allocated could add $100-150 million. “So there’s a lot of these smaller regions of the world where framework agreements have been talked about with the Trump administration…And that could be really powerful.
Halstrom stressed that future exports will tie closely to U.S. production levels, but demand remains unwavering amid a global beef shortage. He noted the economic edge: U.S. exports high-value cuts while importing lean grinding beef, yielding over $1.15 per pound in value differential. With a growing global middle class craving quality protein, Halstrom views 2026 as a pivotal year for expansion, calling it “new land we’re plowing.”
