Global biofuel consumption could rise by 30% this year and nearly 70% by 2030, according to a new study from Transport & Environment (T&E). The surge is being driven by a scramble for biofuel feedstocks amid high oil prices.
The trend threatens to push food prices higher. Vegetable oil prices have already hit a post-2022 peak, and food commodity costs have climbed for three straight months. T&E says the pattern mirrors what followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Governments including the US, Indonesia, and Thailand have moved up new biofuel blending targets following the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices. Meanwhile, major exporters like Brazil and Indonesia are restricting exports of key biofuel crops.
Fertiliser supply adds another layer of strain. Biofuels currently use 5% of the world’s fertilisers to produce just 4% of global transport fuel. Indonesia devotes nearly a fifth of its total fertiliser use to biofuels, while the US allocates about a tenth. Most major biofuel producers depend on Russia, China, and the Middle East for more than half their fertiliser imports.
Land use is also a concern. Reaching a 20% biofuel share of global road fuel, a target pursued by countries like Indonesia and Brazil, would require an estimated 130 million additional hectares of land, roughly the size of South Africa. T&E warns this could drive deforestation and generate more emissions than the fossil fuels being replaced.
Kädi Ristkok, energy and climate director at T&E, said governments are pursuing biofuels as a response to the oil crisis but warned of serious unintended consequences for food prices and the environment. She urged governments to prioritise electrification over expanding biofuel production.
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