The Conservative Party’s claims of being fiscally responsible ring less true after its ‘common sense’ Right Way policy document was found to be based on old numbers and poor use of a simple app.
Published to coincide wit the political faction’s annual conference, at which net zero was squarely in the firing line during numerous speeches which also took potshots at Labour’s fiscal record, the document claimed that ‘what people ultimately want is a government competent enough to solve problems for which it takes responsibility’.
However, the pamphlet goes on to say the Climate Change Committee (CCC) — the official advisory body to Downing Street — had put the cost of net zero at £957 trillion. This figure is actually double what the institute originally estimated decarbonisation to cost Britain, promoting a figure of £478 billion back in 2020.
Worse still, this has since been revised down significantly, with the most recent analysis showing that net zero UK will come with a £108 billion price tag due to rapidly falling costs of various technologies. According to Carbon Brief, the error stems from the use of a spreadsheet which added up figures twice, and took those figures from the old CCC assessment.
The 2020 spreadsheet contains a table listing the additional investments that would be needed to build a net-zero economy, from low-carbon electricity generation through to heat pumps and EVs,’ said Dr Simon Evans, writing for Carbon Brief. ‘These extra capital expenditures, listed as “CAPEX”, add up to a total of £1.38tn over the 30 years of 2020-50. They are set against operational savings, listed as ‘OPEX’, of £0.90tn. Added up over 2020-50, the combined CAPEX and OPEX figures come to a total of £478bn.
‘In addition to the annual sectoral CAPEX and OPEX figures, the CCC’s 2020 spreadsheet also has a line giving combined totals for each year. It appears that someone has added all of these numbers together, resulting in the savings and costs being counted twice,’ he continued. ‘In addition to the annual sectoral CAPEX and OPEX figures, the CCC’s 2020 spreadsheet also has a line giving combined totals for each year. It appears that someone has added all of these numbers together, resulting in the savings and costs being counted twice.’
In reality, net zero is now much more affordable than critics argue. Based on the original CCC estimates, Britain would need to spend 1% of GDP annually over 30 years in order to decarbonise by 2050, but would see 2% GDP growth overall as a result of associated investments. This outlook has now improved. The organisation’s most up-to-date analysis puts the total expenditure for net zero at 0.2% each year, through to 2050 — this is based on investment of £670 billion, up against operational savings of £562 billion.
Image: Jametlene Reskp / Unsplash
More on net zero costs:
Voters say give councils more money for Net Zero to ease cost-of-living
Reaching net-zero could cost as little as 0.2% of GDP, new study suggests
