Global trade in waste feedstocks is shifting fast. Customs data show the changes are already visible, not just forecast.
US imports of used cooking oil fell 38 percent year on year. Chinese-origin volume dropped 67 percent, from 1,124 thousand tonnes to 368 thousand tonnes. Malaysia and Vietnam picked up some of the slack, rising 38 percent and 186 percent respectively. But total US supply still shrank.
The oil didn’t disappear. China’s total used cooking oil exports actually rose 7 percent. The destination changed instead. Shipments to the US fell 61 percent. Flows to the Netherlands more than doubled, making it China’s top destination. That displaced supply is now pressuring European and Southeast Asian markets.
Tallow tells a different story. US imports held roughly flat, up just 1 percent. But the origin mix shifted. Brazil fell 23 percent. Australia rose 24 percent. The UK and Ireland saw sharp gains from small bases. US buyers are spreading their risk without losing volume.
Brazil is hedging too. It still sends 88 percent of its tallow exports to the US. But new flows have opened to the Netherlands and Belgium, suggesting it’s building optionality amid ongoing trade talks.
Policy is reshaping the economics. Under the 45Z tax credit, waste fats earn a premium over soybean oil, though a newer law softened that edge in 2026. Waste fats still carry a low-carbon advantage under state programs like California’s.
Behind all this is soaring US soybean oil demand for biofuel. That share is projected to reach 53.7 percent of total use in 2026/27, up from 40 percent two years ago. Exports are expected to drop sharply as more oil stays home for fuel production.
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