U.S. Trade is Falling With China—but Surging With Taiwan and Vietnam

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U.S. Trade is Falling With China—but Surging With Taiwan and Vietnam

U.S. trade patterns are shifting as imports and exports with China and parts of Europe decline. On the other end of the scale, trade with countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico is rising.

In this graphic, produced in partnership with Terzo, we look at the biggest changes in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same time last year. It’s part of our Markets in a Minute series, which delivers quick economic insights.

The Biggest Drops in U.S. Trade

With a drop of nearly $50 billion, the U.S. has decreased trade with China the most. While the trade war is estimated to have created billions in tariff revenue for the U.S., both countries have increasingly shifted trade toward other partners and supply chains.

Trading Partner Change in Total Goods Trade, Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025
🇨🇳 China -$49B
🇮🇪 Ireland -$44B
🇨🇭 Switzerland -$36B
🇨🇦 Canada -$22B
🇩🇪 Germany -$8B
🇦🇺 Australia -$7B

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is seasonally adjusted and is the change in the sum of exports and imports from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026.

America’s trade with Ireland also plummeted. In 2025, Ireland’s pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. surged in anticipation of potential tariffs. The vast majority of these exports were hormones for GLP-1 drugs. Exports have since levelled off following the 2025 spike, causing the large drop.

The Biggest Rises in U.S. Trade

On the other hand, U.S. trade has increased the most with Taiwan. U.S. demand for semiconductors and servers surged amid the AI boom, and many of these products were exempt from American tariffs.

Trading Partner Change in Total Goods Trade, Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025
🇹🇼 Taiwan +$39B
🇻🇳 Vietnam +$18B
🇲🇽 Mexico +$16B
🇬🇧 UK +$9B
🇭🇰 Hong Kong +$7B
🇰🇷 S. Korea +$7B
🇲🇾 Malaysia +$5B

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is seasonally adjusted and is the change in the sum of exports and imports from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026.

Vietnam also traded significantly more with the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026. Many U.S. companies have shifted production from China to Vietnam. Some Chinese companies have followed a similar path, relocating to Vietnam as a workaround to avoid tariffs. 

Managing Trade Complexity

As companies shift suppliers and manufacturing across countries, businesses are managing increasingly complex contracts. Tracking pricing changes, renewals, and supplier terms has become more important as global trade patterns evolve.

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