While there is relief at last night’s ceasefire in the US-Israel war with Iran, today’s commentators continue to warn of ongoing uncertainty for fuel supplies and prices; but in the long run, will it be shortages of fertiliser and the knock-on effect on our food security that affect Britain the most in the economic fall-out of the war? Cutting fertiliser use has never made more sense, writes Vicki Hird, strategic lead on agriculture, The Wildlife Trusts.
Keys facts: According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, about a third of the global seaborne trade in fertilisers pass through the Strait of Hormuz.1 Essential components of fertiliser like urea and ammonia are made with energy-intensive production processes including gas. This means that, for efficiency, production tends to be clustered near low-cost gas producers, particularly around the Persian Gulf in countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain the UAE and Iran. This density meant that a single Iranian strike on a Qatari facility has been reported as disrupting 1/7th of global urea production. Volatility in supply is likely to continue.2
Fertiliser costs are surging for the second time in just 5 years after similar trade disruptions following the invasion of Ukraine caused fertiliser prices to spike to $815 per tonne in April 2022. This is more than four times the price of just over $200 per tonne in 2020.3 Arguably the situation is worse this time round as there is less spare production capacity elsewhere to fill the gap.
UK farmers – as well as those elsewhere – are rightly highlighting the risks of higher farm input costs, especially of red diesel and fertilizer, because of the Iran conflict. They are also simultaneously facing increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather events due to accelerating climate change. The deluges that put productive fields underwater in 2023/24 led to millions of pounds of government intervention to protect farmers with flooded fields.4
But British people deserve better than constant food inflation and occasionally empty shelves. And British farmers would prefer not to be locked into the current, fragile, just-in-time, intensive supply chain that binds them to a vulnerable, insecure business model that is unfit for the future. Everyone deserves better and increasingly there is proof that a better system is possible.
Tools for a resilient food system
Far greater investment in regenerative, diverse farming and better supply chains could make the UK food system more resilient to current and future shocks, including climatic, whilst also supporting vital nature recovery and climate adaptation.
There is a valuable solution rooted in farm sustainability. Using less fertiliser – as part of a transition to regenerative farming – can cut nitrogen pollution by up to 70%, increase yields by up to 30%, reduce farm costs, and generate wider public goods such as cleaner rivers.5
Agro-ecological farm systems, like organic ones, are less affected by synthetic fertilizer price hikes as they use less, or no, imported inputs. Instead they improve soil health and farm fertility through methods such as using nitrogen-fixing legume crops, livestock manure and more crop diversity.6 Reducing fertiliser use would also cut the associated greenhouse gas emissions which are 23% of food-related emissions globally.
Research for Nature Friendly Farm Network and The Wildlife Trusts reveals that commercial returns from farming with reduced costly inputs and working with natural ecosystems, could deliver an average increase of 10% to 45% in income. By farm sector, the commercial return was 45.3% for lowland livestock, 39.1% for upland livestock, 32.7% for dairy systems, and 9.5% for lowland arable farms.7
Farmers and growers also need to have a fair deal from their buyers such as retailers and traders. Farmers need to be justly rewarded through a more diverse and well-regulated supply chain and paid a fair price and treatment for producing UK food to high environmental standards. Fair dealing by retailers and other buyers is covered by new rules in the Agriculture Act 2020, but it is hard to enforce.
But given increased international conflicts and climate instability, it is clear we need stronger regulation to ensure buyers play fair. We also need new policies and investment to build better, closer routes to market for farmers and a set of Core Environmental Standards be applied to imports and in trade deals to ensure they are not undercut by imports to lower standards.
Food security, inflation and availability
For people on low incomes, the threat of higher prices adds further pain to an already-difficult food shop. The solutions to that lie in better welfare support for people in need, linked to food prices, fair wages and conditions to reduce food poverty for those in work, and ensuring reliable access to healthy food supplies locally.
The government needs to put in place measures that bridge the gap between what farmers need for sustainable food production and what low-income consumers can pay. Recent research by Sustain and others suggests there are practical routes for this so families can eat well and nature-friendly food growers thrive. Ensuring retailers and other big buyers pay fair prices for farmers’ products is also key.8
Can we afford nature-friendly food? The truth is that we can’t afford not to. The health, nature and climate crises we face all stem from the same problem – an unsustainable food system designed for a climate that no longer exists.
The changes we need in policy and practice
Short term
- Investment – public and private – into nature-based farm systems that use natural tools to fertilise crops and manage pests. This should be via green farming schemes, regulated nature markets, independent and affordable advice and farm-based research and demonstration. We need to build resilient farming systems that use natural solutions. Our research in 2024 suggested this requires at least £5.9 billion (£6,169,273 taking account of inflation) in annual investment to restore nature and meet climate goals in the UK.9
- Rapidly review farmgate deals, prices and price cost increase requests and consider how to strengthen the Groceries Code Adjudicator and Agriculture Supply Chain Adjudicator powers to work together to intervene to tackle unfair treatment of primary producers.
- Review UK land use as part of the Land Use Framework to assess inefficient land uses such as for biofuels, industrial livestock feeds, ultra processed foods, and food waste.
Long term shifts in food system
- Government must use the Land Use Framework, 25 year Farming Roadmap and the National Food Strategy, alongside better farm transition support, to deliver resilient farming. Together, the efforts of farmers, food businesses and governments must provide a step change in the food we eat and how it is produced.
- A new horticulture strategy covering sustainable production, supply chains and demand and investment in new local food infrastructure for regional, less extractive supply chains
- Build consumer awareness and action on healthier, sustainable more diverse diets and reduce demand for industrial meat which uses excessive crops as feed, and which pollutes soils and rivers. Public procurement of food such as food for schools and hospitals should support food from nature-friendly, low-input local farm systems.
This is a key moment for government and the food industry to recognise that it’s time to invest in the resilient, climate adapted, and nature friendly farming systems we need.
Read The Wildlife Trusts’ Vision for the Future of Farming in England.
References
[1] United Nations Conference on Trade and Development: Strait of Hormuz Disruptions – implications for global trade and development:https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osgttinf2026d1_en.pdf
[2] How The Middle East Conflict Is Shaking Up Fertilizer, and How Ag Majors Are Responding
[3] Strait of Hormuz disruption highlights the case for reducing fertiliser dependence – Zero Carbon Analytics
[4] Government pays out £57 million to farmers affected by flooding – GOV.UK
[5] Gu, B., Zhang, X., Lam, S.K. et al. Cost-effective mitigation of nitrogen pollution from global croplands. Nature 613, 77–84 (2023).https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05481-8
[6] Regenerative and Agroecological farming. June 2025
[7] Farming at the Sweet Spot 2023 New report finds up to 45% increase in commercial return for nature-friendly farms | The Wildlife Trusts
[8] Can we afford nature-friendly food? | The Wildlife Trusts
[9] New report reveals that nature-friendly farming budget is inadequate to meet climate and nature targets | The Wildlife Trusts
