Mapped: How the American Population Map Will Shift by 2050

Mapped: U.S. Population Change by State Through 2050

America’s population growth through 2050 is projected to be increasingly concentrated in the South and Mountain West, while several states are expected to lose residents.

New projections from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center, incorporating the Census Bureau’s latest population estimates, show how the population of every state is expected to change over the next 25 years.

How Every State’s Population Is Projected to Change

The following table shows the projected percentage and numerical population change for all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Rank	State	Population Change 2025-2050P	% Change
1	Texas	10,381,342	32.7%
2	Florida	6,972,052	29.7%
3	North Carolina	1,979,467	17.7%
4	Georgia	1,796,269	15.9%
5	Washington	1,595,347	19.9%
6	Arizona	1,488,266	19.5%
7	Utah	1,286,189	36.3%
8	Colorado	1,258,060	20.9%
9	South Carolina	1,191,727	21.4%
10	Tennessee	1,079,735	14.8%
11	Idaho	771,954	38.0%
12	Nevada	748,582	22.8%
13	Virginia	648,092	7.3%
14	New Jersey	451,393	4.7%
15	Minnesota	344,581	5.9%
16	Massachusetts	331,157	4.6%
17	Oregon	295,077	6.9%
18	Oklahoma	285,768	6.9%
19	Maryland	220,244	3.5%
20	North Dakota	193,724	24.2%
21	Delaware	184,832	17.4%
22	Alabama	180,756	3.5%
23	Indiana	177,922	2.6%
24	Montana	170,031	14.9%
25	Nebraska	166,227	8.2%
26	South Dakota	141,910	15.2%
27	District of Columbia	90,092	13.0%
28	Arkansas	51,202	1.6%
29	Iowa	44,224	1.4%
30	New Hampshire	11,943	0.8%
31	Kentucky	1,363	0.0%
32	Maine	-3,729	-0.3%
33	Rhode Island	-4,545	-0.4%
34	Wyoming	-18,676	-3.2%
35	Alaska	-33,991	-4.6%
36	Vermont	-39,400	-6.1%
37	Hawaii	-43,574	-3.0%
38	Kansas	-62,629	-2.1%
39	Missouri	-116,731	-1.9%
40	New Mexico	-123,006	-5.8%
41	Wisconsin	-126,928	-2.1%
42	Connecticut	-138,679	-3.8%
43	West Virginia	-289,191	-16.4%
44	Mississippi	-323,931	-11.0%
45	Louisiana	-343,451	-7.4%
46	Ohio	-513,895	-4.3%
47	Michigan	-572,506	-5.7%
48	Pennsylvania	-614,086	-4.7%
49	California	-759,590	-1.9%
50	New York	-989,152	-4.9%
51	Illinois	-1,402,122	-11.0%
—	U.S. Total	28,019,716	8.2%

Population gains are concentrated among a relatively small group of states, with the largest increases centered in the South and West.

Texas leads by absolute growth, adding a projected 10.4 million people, followed by Florida at nearly 7 million. North Carolina ranks third with an increase of about 2 million.

The picture changes when looking at percentage growth. Idaho, which was also among the fastest-growing states from 2020 to 2025, leads the projections at 38.0%, followed by Utah at 36.3%. At the opposite end, West Virginia is projected to decline by 16.4%, the steepest drop nationally.

How the Population Outlook Has Changed

The latest projections differ significantly from the Cooper Center’s previous vintage. The 2026 update incorporates the Census Bureau’s 2025 Population Estimates, reflecting more recent demographic trends.

The revisions are particularly striking for California and New York. California shifted from a projected gain of 3.1 million residents to a decline of about 760,000, while New York moved from a projected gain of 820,000 to a loss of nearly one million.

Meanwhile, projected gains increased for Texas from 8.6 million to 10.4 million and for Florida from 5.2 million to 7 million.

America’s Population Center Keeps Moving South

By 2050, the South is projected to contain 42.7% of the U.S. population, up from 38.1% in 2020. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest are expected to account for smaller shares of the national population.

This shift is already visible in recent Census data. From 2024 to 2025, Texas added 391,000 residents, more than any other state, followed by Florida and North Carolina.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic showing where wealth is moving in America.

• Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-how-the-american-population-map-will-shift-by-2050/