The profit structure for food and beverage companies is about to shift “on a scale that the food industry has not seen since the rise of the supermarkets,” according to a new report from food system advisory business Bramble Intelligence.
This is due to the convergence of appetite-reducing drugs (e.g., Mounjaro and Ozempic), artificial intelligence, and diet-related diagnostic tech for the home. Together, these tools are helping consumers change the grocery basket narrative from one of impulse and convenience to one where foods are the gateway to longevity.
“The confluence of those three things creates a very different consumer than the one that existed even a few years ago,” Chris Mitchell, managing partner at Bramble Intelligence, tells AgFunderNews.
“Convenience and price won in the last decade. Health and wellbeing will shape the next.”
GLP-1s changing the value of food
Use of appetite-suppressing drugs are “moving from clinical use into everyday life faster than any drug class before them,” according to Bramble’s report.
By 2035, a quarter of all adults in the UK (where Bramble is based) could be taking these drugs. In the US, an estimated 10 million people are currently using the drugs, and that number could rise to 25 million by 2030. India, meanwhile, is one of the most significant emerging markets for these drugs.
Studies suggest that, because appetite-suppressing drugs act directly on the brain, they may have a hand in altering reward-related behaviors, such as eating ultra-processed foods with high salt, sugar, and fat content.
According to Bramble’s report, people on average eat 16% fewer calories when using these drugs than they did previously, and that “many users are substituting volume across [grocery shopping] categories to prioritise nutritional density – choosing protein, fibre and whole foods.”
First on the list to go out of the shopping basket are what Mitchell refers to as “shitty snacks.” Think sodas, chips, processed bakery and dessert items, and alcohol. While food companies are trying to create better versions of existing snacks, Mitchell reckons that the market for these foods will “shrink massively, in large part because of the drugs and a bit more awareness.”
AI overtaking ‘traditional’ sources of nutrition
Enter AI, which Mitchell says will allow consumers to “brush aside nutrition washing or greenwashing claims and look at food just for its base elements.”
“Social media created an insane fragmentation of opinion on health, and AI is almost a direct reaction to that.”
While the definition of “good food” is getting more complicated, AI can give “a coherent answer on what a specific family should eat based on their health goals, preferences and budget. Personalized tracking, planning and recipe support, once only for elite athletes, is now more widely accessible.”
This paired with appetite-suppressing drugs has huge implications for the entire food system. Bramble notes that AI is overtaking traditional sources of nutrition advice such as government guidelines and package labels, and that agentic shopping carts could eventually factor personal health goals and dietary preferences into food purchasing decisions.
“The AI decision layer is the biggest prize,” notes the report. “Remove friction and barriers to influence food choices with inspiration, actionable advice, and seamless checkout. Whoever controls this layer shapes millions of diets.”
Consumers acting on evidence
While still the most nascent of the three factors, diet-related diagnostics are nonetheless on the rise, and adoption will to continue as costs lower and usability increases.
Such devices include wearable continuous glucose monitors, at-home biomarker and gut-health tests, and metabolic breath devices.
These tools can consumers, in more granular detail, how their bodies respond to the food choices influenced by appetite-suppressing drugs and AI recommendations.
“What was lab science a few years ago is becoming something individuals can act on each week,” notes Bramble.
“If a credible, evidence-based link between specific foods and specific health outcomes can be shown to a shopper, the case for paying a premium for nutrient density stops being a marketing claim and becomes a measurable one.”
Ensuring consumer trust
For food companies, earning and maintaining consumer trust will be paramount in the future.
“Food companies have to hold consumer trust as the thing they work on most,” says Mitchell.
He suggests this will be substantially easier for newer, leaner brands that don’t have to unwind decades of infrastructure and supplier relationships, most of which were built for the era of cheap calories and large volumes.
“The winners will not be the companies that talk most loudly about health,” notes the report.
“They will be the ones that can still make money when people buy fewer calories, and whose products and services are easy for consumers, AI tools and scoring systems to recognise as delicious, affordable, filling, nutritious and genuinely better for health.”
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- Source: https://agfundernews.com/meet-the-3-forces-reshaping-consumer-palates-and-food-industry-profits
