Ontario corn, soybean and wheat prices continue to percolate higher as stocks of the three major crops will drop to bin-bottom levels at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. Corn and soybean futures have been digesting the U.S. Department of Agriculture prospective plantings report. Wheat traders are focused on U.S. and Russian conditions. Strength in crude oil continues to underpin grain and oilseed markets due to the energy component of demand.
Quick look
Soybeans: Domestic pricing from Ontario crushers has been increasing.
Corn: Ethanol producers have their supplies covered for the next few months.
Wheat: Above-average yields expected in 2026 in Ontario.
Soybeans
Ontario cash soybean prices are nearing two-year highs due to tighter commercial and on-farm stocks. Statistics Canada will release its March 31 stocks report on May 6. We’re expecting Ontario on-farm soybean stocks to come in at 170,000 tonnes, down from the March 31, 2025, on-farm supplies of 896,000 tonnes. Prices from domestic crushers have been increasing and we expect imports from the U.S. to commence over the next month. Ontario export offers f.o.b. St Lawrence are US$25/tonne premium to U.S. offers out of the Gulf and US$50/tonne premium to Brazilian values f.o.b. Paranagua.
Ontario conditions are favourable heading into spring planting. Using StatCan’s acreage number of 2.9 million and trend yield, Ontario soybean production has potential to reach four million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 3.6 million tonnes.
USDA’s acreage survey had U.S. soybean acres at 84.7 million, up four per cent or 3.5 million acres from last year. Using a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, production has potential to reach 120.4 million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 116 million tonnes. We’re viewing this as neutral for the soybean market because the market is factoring in a year-over-year increase in export and domestic demand. The U.S. drought monitor shows drier conditions in Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. We’re expecting volatility to increase as traders focus on weather and yield potential.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency set the blending mandate for biodiesel and renewable diesel to 5.4 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.5 billion gallons in 2027. That’s a 61 per cent and 64 per cent increase, respectively, over the 2025 level of 3.35 billion gallons. There doesn’t appear to be a condition to prioritize U.S. domestic biofuel feedstocks. Canadian canola and soybean oils should be allowed to satisfy a portion of this demand.
The Brazilian harvest is moving into the final stages while the Argentine harvest is nearing the halfway mark. The non-commercial trader had a net long position of 204,008 contracts. This is the largest long position since December 2025. An easing of tensions in the Middle East will result in speculative fund liquidation.
We’ve advised Ontario farmers to be 90 per cent sold on their 2025 production. The last 10 per cent are gambling stocks in case there is a drought.
Corn
The Ontario corn market is functioning to ration demand. However, the rationing is coming to an end. On-farm stocks as of March 31, 2026 are estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, down from the year-ago number of 2.4 million tonnes. Most ethanol processors in Ontario have their demand covered for the next three to four months as we’re not seeing bids from these end-users. Secondly, Canadian crop year-to-date corn exports for the week ending March 29 were 398,000 tonnes, down from 1.5 million tonnes last year.
Ontario corn offers are a sharp premium to U.S. and Brazilian offers. Ocean freight spreads make Ontario corn uncompetitive with French origin into northern European markets. Nearly 40 per cent of European wheat moves into domestic feed channels and last year’s larger wheat crop is saturating feed demand.
The only demand that’s available is domestic feed. The number of cattle on finishing operations in Ontario on Jan. 1, 2026 was 300,000 head. The July number will probably be about the same. Feed demand from finishing barns in Ontario is about the same throughout the year. The key is that nearly 50 per cent of these operations have their requirements covered through the summer. The Ontario corn market is lacking demand at the higher levels. Remaining stocks are sufficient to satisfy demand.
We continue to project a 2026 Ontario corn crop of 10 million tonnes, up from the 2025 production of 9.5 million.
U.S. farmers are expected to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this year, down three per cent from 3.45 million acres from last year. Using a traditional abandonment rate and a trend yield of 183 bu./ac., production has potential to reach 409 million tonnes, down from the 2025 output of 432 million tonnes. In the short term, drier conditions are needed for farmers to seed the crop. The forecast for May calls for average precipitation for most of the Midwest.
Brazilian farmers have finished seeding the second corn crop. Greenhouse conditions have materialized since mid-March and regular rains are in the forecast for April and May. Argentine farmers are finishing up their corn harvest.
We’ve advised Ontario farmers to be 90 per cent sold on their 2025 production.
Wheat
Ontario wheat prices continue to hover near two-year highs. Bids in the elevator system for nearby delivery are premium to new-crop positions. The market is telling farmers to sell now for immediate delivery. Ontario wheat conditions are favourable and above-average yields are expected. We’re forecasting a winter wheat crop of 2.7 million tonnes, down only 200,000 from last year.
The U.S. southern Plains continue to experience drier conditions. We’re forecasting a U.S. hard red winter wheat crop of 18.3 million tonnes, down from the 2025 crop of 21.9 million tonnes. Remember, the U.S. farmer sells 50 per cent of the winter wheat in the summer months. This lower production estimate is bullish for the October rally. Don’t expect a rally in the wheat market during the U.S. harvest.
U.S. soft red winter wheat production is estimated at 8.9 million tonnes, down from the year-ago crop size of 9.6 million tonnes. Again, this is bullish for the fall of 2026, not in the short-term.
In Russia, the crop is coming out of dormancy under favourable conditions. The longer-term forecast calls for drier conditions for May and June. At this stage, traders are factoring in an all-wheat crop of 86 million tonnes, down from the 2025 figure of 88 million. In Russia, the war has damaged infrastructure which has increased costs to move supplies into export position.
The European soft wheat crop is estimated in the range of 124 million to 126 million tonnes, down from the 2025 number of 136.1 million. There will likely be some yield drag in parts of Germany and Poland due to drier conditions. The European winter wheat crop came out of dormancy earlier than normal due to warmer weather.
Australia and Argentina experienced record yields in 2025. There is a higher probability for a year-over-year decrease in production from Southern Hemisphere exporters.
This week, we’re advising farmers to clean out the bins and finish sales for milling and feed wheat. Seasonally, the rains fall across Kansas in April. You have to finish sales before the U.S. harvest begins.
The post Ontario corn, soybean and wheat prices rise as local stocks decline appeared first on Farmtario.
